Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Russia vs Georgia: Is There a Right or Wrong Side?

Russia is claiming a pull back out of Georgia -- that operation Georgia is now over. There's no reason to believe that this political maneuver is over. It may be hiatus but it is not over.

The Caucasus region of the world has been Russia's. It is comprised of the sovereign nations of Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and to a lesser extent Armenia. The later two nothing more than old Soviet satellites, from the Russian perspective. Militarily, these satellites cannot survive on their own. Hence their desire to become part of NATO.

In the middle of all of this are the disputed territories of Abkhazia, Chechnya, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Each of these has seen its share of violence. On the map, you can see that each of these was considered an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic during the Soviet Union.

Add to this mix the ASSR's of Dagestan, Kabardina Balkar and North Ossetia along with the A.O. of Karachai-Cherkess.

On the second map, you can see the languages that are spoke in the greater Caucasus area. There are at least 28 unique peoples and languages in the area.

Russia is emboldened after years of post-Cold War embarrassment -- a third-world nation with a first-world military. Russia is now rich with money due to their energy resources. Europe cannot survive without them. The world markets require their energy.

They are going to look out for their best interests, regardless of what the U.S., NATO or the U.N. say. Georgia is saying this in an unprovoked attack and that America, etc. should come to their defense.

The problem for America is that Georgia is an ally. There is a strong movement to bring them into NATO. What does it mean to be an ally if your allies will not come to your defense in time of need. If they become a NATO member, then the NATO members have an even stronger "obligation" to come to their defense.

I do not think it is in America's best interest to promote Georgia or any Soviet satellite state's NATO membership. Few NATO members, including America, will be willing to defend those nations.

It has been the American policy to promote democracies wherever it can. Georgia had been somewhat of a success story.

I don't blame Russia for wanting to enforce it will on it border republics. I do not fault Georgia for its activities in attempting to control the disputed territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; since they are within Georgia.

Those outside of the conflict are the one's looking stupid. All of the "warnings" and "requests for fighting halts" coming out of the West are nothing more than rhetoric. Russia will do what it wants to do and no one will do anything about it, especially in their "part" of the world.

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